{"id":89,"date":"2017-01-23T20:48:25","date_gmt":"2017-01-24T01:48:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/?p=89"},"modified":"2017-01-23T20:48:25","modified_gmt":"2017-01-24T01:48:25","slug":"the-art-of-the-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/2017\/01\/23\/the-art-of-the-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"The Art of the Deal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If you thought it&#8217;s been a bumpy ride the past couple of months when it was President-elect Trump, just wait for the next few months as we are witnessing President Trump begin to implement policy. I could not figure out why people were jumping up and down over what they perceived as evidence that Trump was reneging on promises before he even took office. His &#8220;perceived&#8221; changes in positions bothered me not in the least. Then it dawned on me that not everyone is a negotiator, has the desire to negotiate, or even understands the process. My career has revolved around negotiating contracts, subcontracts, and twenty years of negotiating multi-employer labor agreements with unions. I know that of which I speak.<\/p>\n<p>I think it is understood that President Trump is a negotiator. But what does that mean? And how does that translate into what we are witnessing as he begins to advocate for new policies and changes to existing policies? \u00a0Perhaps it is easiest to contrast his style with his predecessor, former President Obama, simply because Obama&#8217;s\u00a0policy changes and negotiating style is fresh in everyone&#8217;s mind.<\/p>\n<p>If you look at what actually occurred, rather than how it was often spun in the popular press, former President Obama was a rank novice\u00a0when it came to international <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-101 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Russian-Reset-Button-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Russian-Reset-Button-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Russian-Reset-Button-768x512.jpg 768w, http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Russian-Reset-Button-1024x682.jpg 1024w, http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Russian-Reset-Button.jpg 1484w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>negotiations. \u00a0Was he popular and well-liked on the international stage? \u00a0Without question. \u00a0But he, and his Secretaries of State, were easy marks and those sitting on the opposite side of the table knew it. \u00a0Some of his opening statements and ongoing statements during negotiations made me wince in pain. \u00a0The Russian red &#8220;Reset&#8221; button is one of the earliest examples. \u00a0Following Russia&#8217;s invasion of Georgia in 2008, Secretary Clinton met with the Soviet Foreign Minister in 2009 and <em>requested<\/em> a reset of their relations. \u00a0That is an incredibly weak position for an initial meeting with the Russians, given what they had done only seven months earlier. \u00a0It is really no position at all because no one knew what the &#8220;reset&#8221; was supposed to be.<\/p>\n<p>Then in August 2012, President Obama issued his now infamous warning to Syria not to cross a red line with regard to use of chemical weapons. \u00a0Issuing an ultimatum is only effective if you follow through. \u00a0The fact that the administration backed away from the ultimatum when Syria did use chemical weapons was not lost on the Russians, nor every other country in the world.\u00a0 This, among other facts, told Russia that they could invade Crimea in 2014 with minimal risk of a military response from the U.S. \u00a0Our response was international economic sanctions on Russia which, while effective, are a cheap price for Russia to pay for Crimea and in fact emboldened them\u00a0to continue with an ongoing war in the Ukraine. \u00a0The cogent point to all of this is the President Obama and his administration continually committed negotiating gaffs by stating their goals at the outset or issuing ultimatums that they were unwilling to enforce.<\/p>\n<p>Which brings me to President Donald Trump. \u00a0It is <em>impossible<\/em> to negotiate significant changes to an already existing agreement unless the opposing party is worried and uncomfortable. \u00a0You will note that he has only stated that he wants to renegotiate NAFTA<br \/>\nand perhaps the TPP (he basically cancelled it already). \u00a0He does not state what he thinks <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-111 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/images-300x168.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\" \/>it should be. \u00a0With the exception of the wall on our southern border (Mexico will pay for it&#8230;) he never states\u00a0an end goal. \u00a0What impresses me is that President Trump has every world leader on edge, including some of our strongest allies such as Great Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Japan. \u00a0This is a necessary precedent to meaningful negotiations. \u00a0Each party must believe there are vital negotiating elements to be lost and gained and that everything is on the table. \u00a0They cannot begin thinking that they already have much of what they desire already &#8220;in the bag&#8221;. \u00a0For example, the previous administration began negotiations on troop withdrawals from both Iraq and Afghanistan by publicly announcing when all troops would be out of each country. \u00a0President Obama announced aggressive troop drawdowns that were politically popular with his constituency as well as\u00a0welcome news to the governments of Iraq and Afghanistan. \u00a0This is where we should all collectively wince in pain. \u00a0Why? Because there was nothing gained in return. \u00a0The troop drawdowns were unilateral commitments.<\/p>\n<p>So, what should we anticipate\u00a0going forward? \u00a0First, expect much wailing and gnashing of teeth, even anger, from whoever sits on the other side of the table. \u00a0Anger is, more often than not, a negotiating tactic rather than being real. \u00a0As is incredulity, disbelief, and surprise. \u00a0(You <em>cannot<\/em> be serious!) \u00a0If one genuinely becomes angry during negotiations, you lose. \u00a0It clouds both\u00a0judgement and objectivity. \u00a0I cannot yet decide if Sr. Vincente Fox is <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-109 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Trump-and-Vicente-Fox-AP-Getty-640x480-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Trump-and-Vicente-Fox-AP-Getty-640x480-300x225.jpg 300w, http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Trump-and-Vicente-Fox-AP-Getty-640x480.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>truly going ballistic over President Trump&#8217;s claims that Mexico will pay for the wall or if he is simply setting Mexico&#8217;s starting position for the upcoming negotiations. \u00a0If he is genuinely foaming at the mouth, I would <em>want<\/em> him sitting across the table, even if he is no longer holding political office.<\/p>\n<p>Second, we can expect popular press to regurgitate the wailing and gnashing of teeth, except that they will amplify it to near deafening proportions. \u00a0They will worriedly wring their hands and castigate President Trump&#8217;s administration for (take your pick) alienating a\u00a0long term ally, poking the Russian bear, irreparably harming future relations, setting back relations twenty years, or whatever. \u00a0Critical thinking, although not absent in the popular press, is severely lacking. \u00a0As our country moves forward with these many negotiations, just remember&#8230; all good negotiations end in harmony, a handshake, and smiles on both sides. \u00a0It is an agreement, and both parties wish to present it to their constituencies as a successful accord\u00a0portending good relations going forward. \u00a0It will be no different here. \u00a0I, for one, am looking forward to watching this process unfold.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you thought it&#8217;s been a bumpy ride the past couple of months when it was President-elect Trump, just wait for the next few months as we are witnessing President Trump begin to implement policy. I could not figure out &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/2017\/01\/23\/the-art-of-the-deal\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.10 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Art of the Deal - Sailing SV Celtic Cross - Dave Kurtz<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/davidwkurtz.com\/wordpress\/2017\/01\/23\/the-art-of-the-deal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Art of the Deal - Sailing SV Celtic Cross - Dave Kurtz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If you thought it&#8217;s been a bumpy ride the past couple of months when it was President-elect Trump, just wait for the next few months as we are witnessing President Trump begin to implement policy. 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