We Make Plans & God Laughs

Posted on April 10, 2020 by Dave

Well, I was as surprised as anyone. My brother, his friend Ricardo, and I cast off from Fort Lauderdale, FL on March 11, 2020. We flew into Ft Lauderdale the day before using what was then the appropriate precautions. A few people wore masks on the plane. Social distancing had not yet been called for. I was planning on flying home from Charleston, SC in a few days following our 500 mile offshore passage. When we pulled out of Port Everglades we immediately set our course to get us out into the middle of the Gulfstream. Celtic Cross cruises very comfortably at about 6-7 knots. That became 10-11 knots when the Gulfstream current kicked us in the rear. We were flying! Or at least relatively so if you allow that a fast runner can leave Celtic Cross in his/her rearview mirror.

Sunset over the Gulfstream

We pulled in for a quick overnight in Brunswick, GA to fill our diesel tank and prove to the Florida tax authority that we actually left Florida. The next morning we were on our way north again. Our only serious incident came when I was filming from the foredeck and I had a disagreement with the windlass. The windlass won. My iPhone went overboard and I came away with a 2 inch gash on my forehead. Location services, by the way, just do not work all that well in 250 fathoms of water. My old iPhone currently resides about 40 miles off the coast of Cape Canaveral and will remain there for eternity.

We were ghosting in to Charleston, SC around o500 hours Sunday morning in a heavy fog when my (now new) iPhone pinged with an email download after a couple of days of receiving nothing. It was obvious that things had really changed while we were at sea. Once onshore, and after talking to a few folks we began to understand that we were done sailing for a while. I had planned on leaving Celtic Cross in Charleston until early April and then making another long offshore passage north to Annapolis. However, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York are Covid-19 hotbeds and not some place we want to sail to willingly. The decision is to park Celtic Cross in Charleston indefinitely until such time as the virus threat subsides and we can once again travel safely.

Clips from shakedown cruises and first passage heading north

If I had to hazard a guess, it will be late May before I can safely travel to South Carolina and even think about sailing once again. the voyage may turn into a summer vacation or two in the best of circumstances. Or… perhaps Celtic Cross remains in Charleston for the next year. The sailing in the area is outstanding and it is certainly not the worst place to berth a boat. Now, if anyone reading this happens to be in Charleston, SC over the next several months, let me know! I will always be looking for opportunities to sail..

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Cast Off and Point the Bow North

Posted on March 7, 2020 by Dave

Passagemaking is a much different feeling than daysailing.  Go out for a daysail and if things don’t go right… well, you just cut the day short and head back to port.  Casting off for a passage is different.  It’s a commitment.  There’s no turning back if the weather turns foul or you forgot to top off the water tank.  You adjust to the new situation and forge ahead.  You are traveling.  By boat.  And by wind power.  There is a remarkable feeling of freedom in knowing that you can, with enough time, go pretty much anywhere on the globe.  Now… I am going to be quite happy to travel 500 miles to Charleston, SC after a few days at sea, but the feeling is the same. A new port and a new city to explore.

The Gulfstream ought to give us a boost heading north. Definitely excited! We have had a couple of shakedown cruises. One 250 mile jaunt out to Freeport on Grand Bahama and a second shorter run down to Miami and back. Both convinced me that the Gulfstream is not to be taken lightly. It moves an unbelievable amount of warm water north along the Atlantic Coast and ultimately all the way over to the British Isles. The Gulfstream provides a 2-5 knot push on our way north. And if the prevailing wind has a northern component to it, the seas that result can be huge. Not at all hard to bury the bow in an oncoming wave, which is pretty impressive the first few times it occurs.

Grand Bahama Yacht Club & Hotel

Grand Bahama Island is clearly devastated and the residents are pretty shell-shocked. Getting hit by two Cat 5 hurricanes in the past four years will do that. When we pulled into the marina in Lucaya we would normally expect it to be packed during their prime season. Not the case. The 150 boat marina had perhaps 15 boats docked there. Very happy to see boats coming in since their livelihood depends on tourism and the business we bring with us. It’s just odd to walk around vacant hotels and virtually empty marketplaces.

For those of you who are joining me, following is our updated schedule. It is pretty close to what I originally planned and allows time for things to go wrong, which they will! And for anyone else who may have an interest, there is definitely space aboard except for the run up the Hudson River. Two people can manage the boat, although ideally on multi-day passages three to four people make it easier on everyone, particularly if offshore and standing watches.

Celtic Cross in the harbor at Lucaya. Given the crossing we just experienced, it’s pretty quiet right now.
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Shoot…! This is getting Real!

Posted on December 23, 2019 by Dave

What do they say? Failing to plan is simply planning to fail.  Nothing of consequence gets done without planning.  So… I’m coming up on a year since I set my sights on sailing across the Atlantic.  Like any BHAG (Big Hairy Ass Goal), as you take strides towards accomplishing it, two things happen.  First, you realize that the BHAG isn’t such a reach after all.  In fact, it is entirely possible. In this case, thousands of people do it, many with far less boat, preparation, and experience than I will have.  Second, there comes a time when you realize that it’s actually going to happen, which is kind of an “Oh, sh** what did I get myself into.” moment. Haven’t had that feeling yet, but I know it’s out there…

First things first.  The boat showed up!  A little earlier than planned, but if the right boat comes along… well, you need to jump on it.  The right boat in this case is a 53 foot bluewater ketch rigged sailboat that is capable of circumnavigating the world.  That and a half dozen different certifications to refresh my seamanship gets me on the water.  Now I need to sail her, get to know her, and learn how she reacts when the weather kicks up. She, by the way, is Celtic Cross, named for our Scottish, Irish, and Hungarian heritage.  Yes, my wife Jill’s Hungarian ancestors were the original Celts; dating back to around the time when Christ was born.

This brings me to where I can use some help!  I would like to build a support network of like-minded individuals who may (may) be interested in bluewater sailing, whether for a day or two or a few weeks.  Celtic Cross is set up so that I can single-hand her if the need arises, but single-handed sailing comes with its own set of added risks. I’m not there yet!  There are any number of websites where I can easily obtain crew, but this is going to be a lot more fun with family and friends.

Right now Celtic Cross is berthed in Fort Lauderdale. The plan is to make a handful of daysails and shorter overnight passages up and down the Florida coast and out to the Bahamas. Then sometime in March I plan on bringing her north up the Atlantic coast in a series of offshore passages.  When we get to New York City the two masts come down, effectively turning Celtic Cross into a river barge.   Perfect for a 500 mile trip up the Hudson River and across New York’s Erie Canal.  The river voyage is supposed to be a beautiful trip and it sure beats the 2,000 mile run around Nova Scotia in May.  I should mention here that the Hudson River and Erie Canal have biking paths along their entire length.  It is quite common to see cruising sailboats with multiple bikes strapped to the lifelines for daytrips or riding along the canal while the boats are motoring. I intend to have a bike aboard.

Finally, re-rig the masts in Buffalo, set the sails, and it’s a three day run across Lake Erie and up to Detroit.  The goal is to be berthed for the summer on Lake St. Clair by the 1st of June.

So here are some of the longer passages in the works.  There is little to no chance that it works out exactly like this, but it’s a starting point.  There are of course daysails interspersed in the sailing this winter, but nothing that I will try to schedule.

With this as an outline, if you might be moved to see what this is all about, drop me an email or post a reply below.  Experience is always welcome, but certainly is not the primary criterion.  The primary criterion for a cruising sailboat is crew compatibility.  A 53-foot sailboat sounds big until you put four to six people on it for several days at a time!  The opportunities to go out for a walk by yourself are somewhat limited.

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How Do You Eat an Elephant? … One Bite at a Time.

Posted on July 20, 2019 by Dave

Six months. Time for an update. I thought I might be biting off quite a bit when I decided at the beginning of the year that I wanted to sail across the Atlantic. For starters. What do you know? This just might be possible. A massive undertaking, but definitely doable. Reminds me of when I was first getting into triathlons in 2004. At age 53 I figured my opportunity to do an Ironman had long since passed me by. Plus, an IM was an extraordinary undertaking. You could count on one hand the number of people in Greater Detroit that had done one. Right… While at our Saturday morning breakfast with the FAST triathlon club someone asked everyone who had done an Ironman to raise their hands. Probably twenty people at the table of 35 people raised their hands. I was stunned! And their advice was…. what are you waiting for? Get to it! Surround yourself with the right group of positive people and it becomes not if…, but when.

Same thing with bluewater sailing. Thousands of people do it. Find the right group of people and you find yourself thinking like them. And all of a sudden what seemed like an insurmountable and daunting goal is instead an exciting venture. And completely possible. Talk to the offshore sailors of the world and they just say “what are you waiting for?!?” Get going! And these folks aren’t all young vagabonds in their 30’s. People are sailing solo around the world in their 60’s and 70’s. (Not there yet. Still wrapping my head around the Atlantic Ocean 😳.)

Now… I’d still like to ride a bike across the country. And I still may be able to at some point. My recovery from scleroderma is continuing, but it is slowing somewhat. And I’m 68….! Clock is ticking and I’m working on the cycling, but I’m not going to wait around another year hoping my lungs recover enough when I can get out and do something else right now.

Anyway, there’s lots to do! Like maybe buying a sailboat. One of those things you cannot overlook if you plan on sailing across an ocean.

Amel Ketch-Rigged Boat

And updating my first aid/cpr certifications. And learning navigation, both coastal and celestial. How about boat maintenance? Not a lot of mechanics, sailmakers, or electricians in the middle of an ocean. And speaking of the middle of an ocean, how about self-defense? Can’t just call 911 or the local police when you’re in the middle of east nowhere. Offshore sailing places a premium on self-reliance. That’s definitely part of the appeal for the Bluewater crowd. At the last sailing expo, there were as many women as men in the Master Class for Diesel Engine Maintenance. If things go wrong and you are 1,000 miles from land (and you can be), then everything you need for repairs needs to be within 50 feet of where you are sitting, assuming you are still on your boat. If not… figure it out.

So what else would be useful? Oh yeah, maybe a little experience would help. It just so happens that my younger brother has a 35 foot Island Packet (very seaworthy sailboat) that does not get a lot of use sitting on northern Lake Michigan. Maintaining and sailing that for a summer ought to be a good start.

Island Packet 35

I tell other folks that his Island Packet is my “practice boat”, which always get a laugh. Kind of like learning auto mechanics on a Porsche. So far its been more boat maintenance than boat sailing, but I signed up for both. And the folks at the West Marine store know me well!

Next on the list is boat shopping! Definitely the fun stuff and fall is prime time if you’re a buyer. Should be interesting….

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Now That I Have Another Quarter Century

Posted on January 1, 2019 by Dave

Never have been a fan of New Year’s resolutions. A little too trite for my taste. The intent is certainly honorable since most involve striving to improve yourself in some way. However, I have always much favored BHAG’s, or Big Hairy-Ass Goals, as a better objective. It is something you really want to do instead of something you should do. The way to know if you have a real BHAG is if you tell others about it, they look at you and say “You’re going to do WHAT?!?” And it should carry with it some concern about just exactly how you intend to accomplish it. And maybe wake you up in the middle of the night wondering “What in heck did I get myself into?” That’s a BHAG.

In 2004 I decided to do an Ironman. I thought at 53 years old that the opportunity had passed me by. A great group of friends in the FAST triathlon club convinced me otherwise and I went for it. That’s a BHAG.

In 2015 I was told that I had scleroderma and the best they could do was slow the progression. I elected to have a stem cell transplant despite my rheumatologist recommending against it. He thought I would not survive because my lungs were so damaged. That’s a BHAG. (Whew!…)

So here it is January 1, 2019. And a Happy New Year to everyone! I wish you nothing but health, happiness, and success in the coming year! As for me, well, I’m going sailing. Bluewater sailing. Across the Atlantic and on to parts as yet unknown sailing. Sometimes my toes curl to think about it, so it’s definitely a BHAG. And so much to learn! I’ve sailed off and on all my life, but I need to go through some formal classwork training to obtain my bareboat certification. And I need advanced first aid training. Cannot run to the Urgent Care clinic when you’re a thousand miles from land. And I need to learn how to shoot with accuracy. At sea, you are your first, and only, line of defense. It’s rare, but it happens. My father and brother had to use a rifle in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico to scare off drug smugglers bent on high-jacking their boat. And I need to learn celestial navigation! Electronics and GPS are great. Until they fail. You think Nebraska’s flat and featureless? Try the middle of an ocean. And not to be forgotten is that I need to continue to regain my health. I have a great training partner in Leo Burns who says he has the solution! Let’s go ride 250 to 750 mile timed cycling events. Might take three days and we kind of skip sleeping, but what’s not to like?!? Randonneuring might be a BHAG in itself. The primary question to be answered is whether I can regain the lung capacity to climb hills. As in Rocky Mountain size hills. And can I still breathe when I get up there? I intend to find out!

So this BHAG of mine comes with an invitation to my friends and family. I figure this is probably a two year program before I head out on any offshore voyaging. And as yet I am not able to convince my wife to join me. I’m not planning on any year long, around the globe voyages. More like four to six week passages across an ocean and into the Mediterranean or North Sea. Dock the boat for a few months and then return for another voyage. I’m looking to recruit a crew(s) for these voyages. Over the next few months I’m going to try this on for size with some charters, etc. If this seems interesting, or even if you think it might be interesting, feel free to catch up with me sometime this year. At this stage I can orient this towards a crew of anywhere from one to six depending on what might work best.

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An Early View from the Other Side

Posted on April 17, 2017 by Dave

Before I get too far down the road with my recovery, I should record what it feels like to begin the long haul back to whatever “normal” is going to be.  First, let me state that I’m very, very fortunate.  Fourteen months ago my hands were hardening and curling up.  I had dropped 30 pounds that I didn’t need to drop and I was so weak that I could not take the top off a bottle of water or safely hold a glass in just one hand.  I coughed constantly as a result of the damage to my lungs.  My rheumatologist was telling me that the goal was to slow or “maybe” stop the progression of the disease.  And Dr. Khanna has a well deserved worldwide reputation as an expert on scleroderma.  He wanted me to understand that there is no cure.

As recently as last October, I had a conversation with Dr. Khanna regarding my prospects. He felt I was not a candidate for stem cell transplant because my lung function was too low (DLCO at the time was 29%).  I applied for admission into the lung transplant program at U. of Michigan, but I also contacted Dr. Burt at Northwestern University Medical Center.  In listening to his seminars and reading his papers, it was apparent that he believed otherwise.  He was convinced, and he convinced me, that the stem cell transplant mortality rate was tied to heart failure.  Patients did not suffocate as a result of poor lung function.  Not exactly risk free, but it sure beats the five year average life expectancy associated with a lung transplant so I decided on the stem cell transplant route.

With that as a brief background, perhaps you can understand why I am almost giddy today at Day +68 post-transplant.  There are any number of signs that my recovery is proceeding well.  My energy level is perhaps two thirds of what it should be, but that is double what it was only two months ago.  Last week I went through a cardioversion procedure to stop the atrial fibrillation in my heart.  That alone was like a V-8 engine running on all 8 cylinders again instead of limping along on seven.  And my hair is returning!  Although it looks like I collected lint from our dryer lint trap and glued it in place.  I even have static cling…

More importantly, my resting heart rate, which escalated into the 78-85 bpm range as a result of the hardening of my heart, is now dropping back into the sixties.  I’m hoping that is an indicator that my heart is softening once again and may return to normal.  This week I learned that the RNA Polymerase III antibody (the bad antibody that caused my immune system to turn on me) has dropped to near normal.  Fourteen months ago the test showed that it was in excess of 150, which is basically off the chart as a very strong positive test result.  Today it is at 23.9 where anything less than 20 is considered negative.  Essentially a very weak positive test result.

It will be another four to six months or so before I know for certain that I am in remission, but the future looks much brighter standing on this side of the transplant process.  I know this is more detail than anyone wants to read, unless you are another scleroderma sufferer considering a stem cell transplant.  To those individuals I would offer two primary takeaways from my experience.  First, the best person to make decisions about your health care is you.  Learn everything you can, even if it seems overwhelming at first.  I was absolutely lost a year ago as to what was happening to me.  You can work through it by obtaining good information.  Not every one of your doctors will agree with some of your decisions.  Just remember that it is your life on the line.  Second, have faith that you will have a positive outcome and know that attitude is everything in getting to that outcome.  It is not easy hearing that there is no cure and that ” the best we can do is slow the progression”.  I can’t tell you how to convince yourself that you’re going to survive and you will find a solution.  I just know it can be done.  Prayer, a positive attitude, and a strong support system are key.

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There’s a Truck out there with my Face Imprinted in the Grill…

Posted on March 4, 2017 by Dave

It’s been a solid month since my last post. Everything really caught up with me after the stem cell transplant on Feb. 7. I lost interest in pretty much doing anything except getting through the process and recovery. The transplant itself went quite well.  They wheel my frozen (-175 degrees C) stem cells into the room on this cart and then thaw them out.  The Chaplain blessed them for me.  I figured since I was baptized at birth I didn’t want the new stem cells to feel left out.  And Feb. 7 is my new birthday!  Then it was simply a matter of hanging an IV bag for about 45 minutes.  Altogether there were six people in the room plus Jill and me.  Of the six, five of them grew up within ten miles of our home in Novi, Livonia, Farmington, or Farmington Hills.  Certainly an interesting coincidence, but it likely stems from that mass exodus of young college graduates from around southeastern Michigan when there were no jobs to be found.

All of the build up and the chemotherapy leading up to the actual transplant had me so tense that the actual transplant procedure was somewhat anti-climactic.  Just very relieved to have reached that milestone with no major problems so I was exhausted the rest of the day.  On Day +1 I received my last dose of Rituxan.  I was not yet neutropenic, which is a requirement in a successful stem cell transplant.  However, my white blood cell counts and neutrophil counts were still dropping.  Neutropenia occurs when they are essentially near zero (<0.1).  On Day +2 I had perhaps the only significant hiccup in the whole process when my heart rate jumped to 162 bpm (supra-venticular tachycardia) and then a couple of hours later I went into atrial fibrillation.

Under normal circumstances I would be transferred to the cardiac ICU where they can better deal with these events.  However, that meant moving me off the stem cell floor where infection control is paramount and the air is HEPA filtered to prevent possible infections to patients with no immune systems.  I was not enthusiastic about going anywhere.  In the end, the medical team decided to keep me where I was and try to reduce the heart rate with medication.  If that did not work, I was going elsewhere.  After six hours or so my heart rate was down to acceptable limits (<100 bpm) which relieved me no end.  From Day +3 to when I was discharged on Day +11 it was simply a waiting game.  The big event each day was seeing what my blood lab results were.  I did not become neutropenic until Day +5 when both the neutrophil and white blood cell counts dropped to essentially zero.  I stayed there for five days, at which time they finally began to rise again.

Dr. Burt did say that the delay in reaching a neutropenic state is a result of using the “heart friendly” protocol.  Under the standard protocol most patients become neutropenic around Day 0, but this is a more gradual slope.  Same result, but not as drastic a drop in blood levels.  Given my episode with SVT and A-fib, I suspect that had I gone through the standard protocol I might now be a statistic or at least had a much rougher go of it.  (Thank you, Dr. Burt!)

Following transplant, I was incredibly weak.  The typical response when doctors ask “How do you feel today?” is “I feel like I got run over by a truck.”  And I was no exception.  This derives from the chemotherapy and the transplant process, the atrial fibrillation where my heart is not pumping efficiently, and just the deconditioning that takes place from lying in bed for weeks on end.  I’m now at Day +25 and just beginning to be able to get through a day without collapsing on the couch for hours at a time.  The other not-so-fun side effect is what they refer to as chemo-brain, which is the fog I seem to be in all the time.  I took several books with me because I figured I would have more time to read than I had ever had.  However, linear thinking where I want to put several thoughts together became very difficult.  I would just forget what I was trying to say.  And reading for any length of time I found taxing.  For the most part, I was a couch potato and now very well versed in virtually all episodes of Blue Bloods and NCIS.  This chemo-brain will disappear over the next 2-3 months, so if I seem somewhat more eccentric than usual, it’s not dementia.  Or at least that’s my story and I’m sticking to it!

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Boring is Good! Or so My Doctors Say…

Posted on February 4, 2017 by Dave

I kicked this phase off to a good start by losing my hair before I even got here.  That double dose of Cytoxan during the aphaeresis phase was enough to have me shedding like a golden retriever.  And I didn’t have that much to start with.  Figure I’ll go for Bryan Cranston’s Breaking Bad look and let my beard grow out a little.  Or at least until it starts falling out as well.

So I’m at Day -3 in the chemotherapy countdown right now. This started at Day -6 on Wednesday. Monday Feb. 7th is Day 0 when my stem cells are reintroduced via infusion. And so far so good. I’m definitely feeling the chemo just because the fatigue is beginning to set in and the appetite is beginning to decline, but all in all this is going well (i.e. boring).  My chemotherapy protocol changed again when I arrived here in Chicago.  HSCT for scleroderma is, after all, still in the clinical trial phase and not yet a standardized approach.  In my case, I am on the “heart friendly” protocol and even that is being modified to improve the outcome based upon the latest information.  Since I’m about their 18th patient to go through this protocol, there is not a whole lot of history just yet.  With that said, for the record and for those that may follow me (since they may be the only people really interested in this) here is my particular sequence:

  • Day -6     Rituxan plus Fludarabine
  • Day -5     Fludarabine plus rabbit ATG
  • Day -4     Fludarabine plus rabbit ATG
  • Day -3     Fludarabine plus rabbit ATG
  • Day -2     Cytoxan plus rabbit ATG
  • Day -1      Rabbit ATG
  • Day  0      Stem Cells!
  • Day +1     Rituxan
  • Days +2 through + 8,+9,+10,…   Get the neutrophils, WBC count, and platelets up so I can get discharged.

I will say that as long as I’m going to spend three weeks in a hospital, this is a very nice facility.  Northwestern’s medical center is located in downtown Chicago right off Michigan Avenue’s miracle mile.  They have a stationary bike for the patients while we are here.  This is the view looking out over Lake Michigan.  The water right in front of us is the swim course for the Chicago Triathlon.  On Saturday and Sunday mornings during the summer that stretch of water is packed with swimmers getting in their open water swim workouts.  If all goes well here, I’ll get to swim there once again when I’m back here for checkups.

 

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No Need for a Barber for a While

Posted on January 25, 2017 by Dave

Or shampoo, for that matter. Now, I’ve never had an abundance of hair, but lately Jill thinks we have a Labrador Retriever around the house because of the shedding. Probably the next time you see me I’ll be polishing the dome instead of combing it. That last round of chemotherapy was enough to cause my hair to fall out beginning yesterday. It should return in three to four months if all goes well.

Now, me being an expedient sort of guy, if I find that upkeep is easier with no hair and my bald head doesn’t look like a kumquat with attached ear flaps, I may just keep it that way. Jill would be less than enthused…

And no, I am not going to change my four year old FB profile photo 🙂

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The Art of the Deal

Posted on January 23, 2017 by Dave

If you thought it’s been a bumpy ride the past couple of months when it was President-elect Trump, just wait for the next few months as we are witnessing President Trump begin to implement policy. I could not figure out why people were jumping up and down over what they perceived as evidence that Trump was reneging on promises before he even took office. His “perceived” changes in positions bothered me not in the least. Then it dawned on me that not everyone is a negotiator, has the desire to negotiate, or even understands the process. My career has revolved around negotiating contracts, subcontracts, and twenty years of negotiating multi-employer labor agreements with unions. I know that of which I speak.

I think it is understood that President Trump is a negotiator. But what does that mean? And how does that translate into what we are witnessing as he begins to advocate for new policies and changes to existing policies?  Perhaps it is easiest to contrast his style with his predecessor, former President Obama, simply because Obama’s policy changes and negotiating style is fresh in everyone’s mind.

If you look at what actually occurred, rather than how it was often spun in the popular press, former President Obama was a rank novice when it came to international negotiations.  Was he popular and well-liked on the international stage?  Without question.  But he, and his Secretaries of State, were easy marks and those sitting on the opposite side of the table knew it.  Some of his opening statements and ongoing statements during negotiations made me wince in pain.  The Russian red “Reset” button is one of the earliest examples.  Following Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, Secretary Clinton met with the Soviet Foreign Minister in 2009 and requested a reset of their relations.  That is an incredibly weak position for an initial meeting with the Russians, given what they had done only seven months earlier.  It is really no position at all because no one knew what the “reset” was supposed to be.

Then in August 2012, President Obama issued his now infamous warning to Syria not to cross a red line with regard to use of chemical weapons.  Issuing an ultimatum is only effective if you follow through.  The fact that the administration backed away from the ultimatum when Syria did use chemical weapons was not lost on the Russians, nor every other country in the world.  This, among other facts, told Russia that they could invade Crimea in 2014 with minimal risk of a military response from the U.S.  Our response was international economic sanctions on Russia which, while effective, are a cheap price for Russia to pay for Crimea and in fact emboldened them to continue with an ongoing war in the Ukraine.  The cogent point to all of this is the President Obama and his administration continually committed negotiating gaffs by stating their goals at the outset or issuing ultimatums that they were unwilling to enforce.

Which brings me to President Donald Trump.  It is impossible to negotiate significant changes to an already existing agreement unless the opposing party is worried and uncomfortable.  You will note that he has only stated that he wants to renegotiate NAFTA
and perhaps the TPP (he basically cancelled it already).  He does not state what he thinks it should be.  With the exception of the wall on our southern border (Mexico will pay for it…) he never states an end goal.  What impresses me is that President Trump has every world leader on edge, including some of our strongest allies such as Great Britain, Canada, Mexico, and Japan.  This is a necessary precedent to meaningful negotiations.  Each party must believe there are vital negotiating elements to be lost and gained and that everything is on the table.  They cannot begin thinking that they already have much of what they desire already “in the bag”.  For example, the previous administration began negotiations on troop withdrawals from both Iraq and Afghanistan by publicly announcing when all troops would be out of each country.  President Obama announced aggressive troop drawdowns that were politically popular with his constituency as well as welcome news to the governments of Iraq and Afghanistan.  This is where we should all collectively wince in pain.  Why? Because there was nothing gained in return.  The troop drawdowns were unilateral commitments.

So, what should we anticipate going forward?  First, expect much wailing and gnashing of teeth, even anger, from whoever sits on the other side of the table.  Anger is, more often than not, a negotiating tactic rather than being real.  As is incredulity, disbelief, and surprise.  (You cannot be serious!)  If one genuinely becomes angry during negotiations, you lose.  It clouds both judgement and objectivity.  I cannot yet decide if Sr. Vincente Fox is truly going ballistic over President Trump’s claims that Mexico will pay for the wall or if he is simply setting Mexico’s starting position for the upcoming negotiations.  If he is genuinely foaming at the mouth, I would want him sitting across the table, even if he is no longer holding political office.

Second, we can expect popular press to regurgitate the wailing and gnashing of teeth, except that they will amplify it to near deafening proportions.  They will worriedly wring their hands and castigate President Trump’s administration for (take your pick) alienating a long term ally, poking the Russian bear, irreparably harming future relations, setting back relations twenty years, or whatever.  Critical thinking, although not absent in the popular press, is severely lacking.  As our country moves forward with these many negotiations, just remember… all good negotiations end in harmony, a handshake, and smiles on both sides.  It is an agreement, and both parties wish to present it to their constituencies as a successful accord portending good relations going forward.  It will be no different here.  I, for one, am looking forward to watching this process unfold.

 

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